‘Wicked, For Good’ eyes $115M to $120M Thanksgiving debut, poised to set a new musical record

Universal’s Wicked, For Good is tracking for a victorious North American opening of more than 115 million dollars over Thanksgiving, with some forecasts nudging toward 120 million. If the projection holds, the sequel would set another high watermark for a Broadway musical adaptation on film.

The second chapter in Jon M. Chu’s two part screen adaptation of the Oz saga opens on Friday, 21 November 2025 in North America, with a day and date rollout in key international markets. The film reunites Chu and producer Marc Platt with stars Ariana Grande as Glinda and Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba, as the witches reckon with the fallout from their choices. Awards pundits expect both leads, and the film, to feature heavily in the upcoming Oscar race.

Leading research firm NRG currently pegs the domestic debut at about 115 million dollars. Industry sources who have seen the raw survey data believe a total closer to 120 million is within reach. Presales for the sequel are pacing well ahead of the first film, although Universal is guiding to the more conservative figure.

The first Wicked opened on the same weekend in 2024, and surprised on the upside. Early tracking suggested an 85 million start, the actual three day total reached 112.5 million, which set a genre record at the time. The film went on to earn nearly 750 million dollars worldwide, the strongest performance ever for a Broadway musical adaptation, a category that has often challenged studios.

This year’s frame is less crowded. In 2024, Gladiator II launched alongside Wicked with a robust 55 million. For 2025, Wicked, For Good is the sole new studio tentpole on its first weekend. Disney Animation’s Zootopia 2 follows on Wednesday, and will enter tracking next week.

With presales surging, a favorable calendar, and momentum from the first installment, Universal heads into the holiday corridor with a clear runway. All eyes now turn to opening weekend to see whether Wicked, For Good can fly past 120 million and reset the record books for movie musicals once again.

Photo Credit: DepositPhotos.com