Wicked: For Good casts a spell, but the box office is still chasing its happy ending

When Wicked: For Good finally floated into cinemas this weekend, it arrived with a broomstick full of expectations. The first part of the long awaited two film adaptation of the Broadway juggernaut did not disappoint on headline numbers. With an estimated 226 million dollars worldwide and 150 million dollars in North America alone, it now holds the record for the biggest global opening of a movie based on a stage musical.

Led by Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba and Ariana Grande as Glinda, the film has generated the kind of cultural moment studios dream of. Early reviews have been strong, audience scores are glowing and social media has been flooded with green themed selfies and fan reactions. Retailers have moved quickly to cash in. Target and Walmart shelves are lined with Wicked branded clothing and toys, breakfast aisles now feature tie in cereal from General Mills, and restaurant chains like Chili’s are pouring neon hued cocktails inspired by Oz.

It all looks like the sort of phenomenon that used to define a Hollywood comeback story. Yet for all the emerald sparkle, Wicked: For Good on its own will not magically fix the industry’s box office problem.

A strong weekend in a soft year

Analysts estimate that the domestic box office reached about 8.6 billion dollars in 2024. Heading into this year, forecasts suggested cinemas could add another 500 million to 1 billion dollars on top of that figure. The hope was that with the Hollywood writers strike in the rearview mirror, 2025 would bring a sturdier slate and a return to growth.

So far, the recovery has been shakier than expected. Ticket sales are on track to beat last year, but some analysts now doubt that they will crack the psychologically important 9 billion dollar mark, let alone challenge the 8.9 billion dollars achieved in 2023. Wicked: For Good has lifted the mood, but the underlying graph is still more gentle incline than sharp rebound.

Aftershocks of the strikes and a thin release schedule

Part of the problem lies in timing. The 2023 strikes disrupted production schedules, pushing some high profile projects further down the calendar. The industry is technically back at work, but the gaps created during those months are still being felt.

This October was especially grim. Many cinema chains described it as one of the weakest in decades in terms of both foot traffic and marquee titles. A planned Michael Jackson biopic shifted from an October release to next summer. A new Mortal Kombat movie also moved into next year. Neither of those films was expected to be a billion dollar behemoth, but both would have helped to keep screens busy and concession stands humming.

With few sizable replacements stepping into those vacated slots, cinemas entered the fourth quarter underpowered. Wicked: For Good is the first true four quadrant tentpole to arrive in some time, which explains the sense of relief in exhibition circles. Yet a single strong opening weekend, however encouraging, cannot erase months of underperformance.

Can the holiday season still deliver?

There is still time for 2025 to surprise on the upside. Disney’s Zootopia 2 is due in late November, bringing back a beloved animated world that performed strongly on its first outing and has since grown in popularity through streaming. In December, James Cameron returns to Pandora with Avatar: Fire and Ash, the next chapter in the science fiction saga that has repeatedly redefined global box office expectations.

If both films connect with family audiences and international markets, they could tighten the gap between current projections and those hopeful early year forecasts. The challenge is steep. Neither is guaranteed to match the towering success of the biggest pre pandemic or early post pandemic titles, and both will be competing for attention in a crowded festive window filled with sports, travel and streaming distractions.

The longer game: a pipeline of potential giants

Even if 2025 ends slightly behind the rosiest predictions, analysts see reason for optimism in the medium term. The studio pipelines for 2026 and 2027 are stacked with high profile franchises and recognisable brands that could bring audiences back in large numbers.

Among the titles drawing early buzz are The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which hopes to build on the huge success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, a new adaptation of The Odyssey, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, which returns to the dystopian universe that has already proved cinema catnip for young adult audiences.

In 2023 there were two films that each cleared 600 million dollars at the domestic box office. This year, although there have been hits, none has broken into that rarified tier. Analysts argue that the pipeline for the next couple of years contains several candidates that could change that pattern, provided audiences continue to embrace big screen spectacle over at home convenience.

Wicked is a win, not a cure

For now, Wicked: For Good stands as a vital reminder of what a well loved property, star power and a carefully orchestrated marketing blitz can still do in a theatrical marketplace that has often seemed fragile. It has jolted the numbers upward, re energized concession sales and proven that movie musical adaptations can still draw crowds when executed with flair.

Yet the film also highlights the structural reality facing Hollywood. A single hit, even one with spellbinding numbers, cannot carry an entire year. Sustained box office health requires a steady cadence of must see releases, reliable mid range performers and fewer empty weeks where cinema lobbies sit quiet.

If Zootopia 2, Avatar: Fire and Ash and the next wave of blockbusters deliver on their promise, Wicked: For Good may be remembered as the moment the tide turned. If they do not, it will stand instead as a shimmering outlier, proof that the magic is still there, but that the industry has yet to find the right incantation to make it last.