Tony Talk 2025: A Season of Surprises and Stiff Competition

As the buzz for the 2025 Tony Awards builds, early odds are already stirring conversation among Broadway insiders and theater fans alike. With 21 musicals (and revivals) and 21 plays (and revivals) battling for a slice of the Tony pie, this season promises one of the most competitive lineups in recent memory. Here’s a look at where the early betting stands across eight key categories—and what it might mean for the awards season.

Best Musical: A Battle of Big Names

Leading the pack is Death Becomes Her, now favoured at 53/22, closely pursued by Maybe Happy Ending at 61/22 and the Olivier Award-winning transfer Operation Mincemeat at 11/2. These three are considered the season’s hottest prospects, bolstered by strong critical reception and robust box-office numbers from the fall. Not to be overlooked are Dead Outlaw(9/1) and Buena Vista Social Club (15/1), with the former seen as an underdog by many—its off-Broadway run earned 11 Drama Desk nominations, hinting at its potential on the Tony stage. The race is wide open, even as splashier spring openings like Boop! The Musical and Smash await their moment.

Best Play: Cole Escola’s ‘Oh, Mary!’ Takes Center Stage

In the dramatic arena, Oh, Mary! is the early favorite at 10/5, with Cole Escola’s irreverent portrayal of Mary Todd Lincoln predicted to take home the win by a landslide, according to 84 percent of our users. Hot on its heels are The Hills of California (20/5), followed by English (9/1), Good Night, and Good Luck (19/2), and John Proctor is the Villain (14/1). Surprising omissions include Purpose by Branden Jacobs-Jenkins and effects-driven Stranger Things: The First Shadow—both poised to make noise when the nomination slate is finally revealed.

Revival Races: The Old Guard vs. New Contenders

The Best Musical Revival race is reminiscent of past clashes between Broadway heavyweights. Gypsy leads at 16/8, but Sunset Boulevard (25/10) and Floyd Collins (16/2) are hot on its heels. The Last Five Years (21/2) also appears in the mix, reflecting a season where both Sondheim and Andrew Lloyd Webber projects have passionate backers. Meanwhile, the Best Play Revival battle is led by Shakespeare’s Othello (55/20) and Mamet’s Glengarry Glen Ross (59/20), with newer entries like Jonathan Spector’s Eureka Day (10/2) and Thornton Wilder’s Our Town (7/1) proving that even the classics aren’t safe from modern reinterpretation. David Henry Hwang’s satirical Yellow Face—a debut on Broadway—could easily upset the established order.

Star Power: Acting Categories Heating Up

The Best Actress in a Musical category is set to be one of the toughest calls on Tony night. Six-time winner Audra McDonald (in Gypsy) is the heavy favorite at 41/20, with Nicole Scherzinger (from Sunset Boulevard) trailing at 33/10. Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard, both from Death Becomes Her, are also in contention at 12/2 and 8/1 respectively, along with Sutton Foster from Once Upon a Mattress (24/1). On the musical acting front, Best Actor sees Darren Criss (in Maybe Happy Ending) as the early frontrunner at 15/5. However, formidable competitors like Tom Francis (Sunset Boulevard, 5/1), Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins, 6/1), Jonathan Groff (Just in Time, 6/1), and Andrew Durand (Dead Outlaw, 16/2) ensure this race will be fiercely contested.

On the dramatic side, Best Actress in a Play features Sarah Snook in The Picture of Dorian Gray as the overwhelming favorite at 10/5, with Laura Donnelly in The Hills of California (53/20), Mia Farrow in The Roommate (9/1), and Sadie Sink in John Proctor Is the Villain (20/2) also vying for nods. Best Actor in a Play is shaping up with Cole Escola’s tour-de-force performance in Oh, Mary! nearly a lock at 33/20. Yet, heavyweights like George Clooney in Good Night, and Good Luck (12/2), Denzel Washington in Othello (8/1), Daniel Dae Kim in Yellow Face (18/2), and Jim Parsons in Our Town (17/1) are ready to challenge for the spotlight.

Counting the Nominations

As the season unfolds, the nomination tallies will be closely watched. Early predictions see Death Becomes Her leading the musical count with nine nods, while Oh, Mary! tops the play predictions with five. In total, our odds cover 17 of the 26 Tony categories, not including the technical awards—those categories where orchestrations, scenic design, costume design, lighting, and sound will surely spark further debate.

With the nominations set to be announced on May 1, these early odds are just the beginning of what promises to be an exhilarating, unpredictable awards season. As Broadway continues to dazzle and challenge expectations, one thing is clear: 2025 is shaping up to be a year of bold statements, stunning performances, and no shortage of surprises.

Stay tuned for more Tony Talk as we continue to break down the latest predictions and insights from the heart of Broadway.

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